Will the Democratic Party win the NC-11 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 39¢ shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $14,252 open interest, suggesting this market may lack active price discovery. The 272.5% implied yield on the Yes side combined with exceptional 1310% realized volatility and an 8.36 vol ratio indicates highly speculative positioning, though the neutral regime score and minimal 1-cent price movement over seven days suggest the market hasn't yet reacted to meaningful new information. With 201 days to expiration and a 2 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a thinly-traded niche market where the 39¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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