Will the Republican Party win the NC-12 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a Republican probability of just 8¢ despite NC-12 being a competitive district that Democrats only won by 1.3 points in 2024, suggesting significant undervaluation of GOP chances. The astronomical 2128.6% implied yield on Yes positions combined with zero 24-hour volume and $26k open interest indicates severe illiquidity and potential stale pricing rather than genuine market consensus. With 197 days to expiration and a moderate 12 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a classic thin-market anomaly where the extreme yield reflects liquidity constraints rather than fundamental election probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade