Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?

The Republican lean in NE-01 is priced at 78¢, implying a comfortable but not overwhelming advantage with over 200 days until the November 2026 election. The market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $13,116 in open interest, making the 3¢ spread potentially misleading given the thin order book. The dramatically asymmetric implied yields (51.3% for Yes vs. 644.9% for No) signal that traders expect Republican victory but demand substantial compensation for taking the contrarian No position, typical of low-liquidity markets where pricing can be unreliable.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NE-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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