Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Polymarket.

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58¢
Bid/Ask 56/60¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $8.77·OI $31,498.515·195d remaining
0x707eb5c6df23e32e0b770dd0ccd1245abb7fac0dcfd24d8b68dd99e5ca737180
7-day price93 snapshots · 3 regime
65¢58¢ current
Apr 856¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 135.6%
IY (No) 258.5%
Adj IY 129%
CRI 1
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)135.6%
IY (No)258.5%
Adj IY129%
CRI1

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.477
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:48:32 AM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x707eb5c6df23e32e0b770dd0ccd1245abb7fac0dcfd24d8b68dd99e5ca737180 yes 100

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