Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15,410 in open interest, suggesting trapped positions rather than active trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $15,410 in open interest, suggesting trapped positions rather than active trading. The 5-cent price implies only a 5% probability for Manzur, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reaches an astronomical 4,819%—a red flag indicating the market may be mispriced or dominated by speculative positions with minimal real conviction. With 144 days to the September 2026 close and a realized volatility of 1,831%, this appears to be a highly speculative, thinly-traded contract where the extreme yield reflects illiquidity risk rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Also on kalshi at 4¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x1cf96ff28b0fa76e23f12a0cf299fc3bced8b26e0addfc1ef11fb58347c0216e yes 100