Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?

The market is pricing Republicans at a substantial 72% win probability, but the extreme 469% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $16.3M open interest masks just $1.34 in daily volume, suggesting thin actual trading depth. The 6.19 volatility ratio and 499% realized volatility indicate this contract experiences wild swings despite the tight 2¢ spread, with the neutral regime and modest 2.8 information arrivals per hour suggesting the market lacks conviction despite the high headline probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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