Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?
Prediction markets currently give a 89% probability that Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?. This contract trades at 89¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. This market is pricing Sununu as an overwhelming favorite at 90¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the probability may be stale or reflect limited conviction.
Analysis
This market is pricing Sununu as an overwhelming favorite at 90¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting the probability may be stale or reflect limited conviction. The extreme asymmetry in implied yields—28.2% for Yes versus 2281% for No—combined with a high Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicates substantial tail risk, likely from political developments that could dramatically shift the primary landscape before the September 2026 close. With $13k open interest and 144 days to expiry, the market lacks liquidity to absorb significant position changes, making the 90¢ price potentially vulnerable to repricing if competing candidates emerge or Sununu's viability shifts.
Also on kalshi at 87¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire. If no 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x61c4f9b8b29569661a926fbbf35d8fd9c29f4a49c7d9652e63e8c36635af7e90 yes 100