Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing Democrats as heavy favorites at 86¢ with a tight 3¢ spread, but the extreme 1121.5% implied yield on the No side signals severe mispricing or structural illiquidity—typical for deeply out-of-the-money positions. With $18.1M open interest against only $206K in 24-hour volume, this market lacks depth despite the high OI, and the 6 Cliff Risk Index suggests potential volatility around key political events or candidate announcements leading into 2026. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime indicate the market has settled at this consensus level, though the asymmetric yield profile warrants caution for contrarian bettors.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Hampshire U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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