Will the Democrats win the New Jersey Senate race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $24,457 in open interest, suggesting the 92¢ price may not reflect true market consensus. The asymmetric implied yields—15.9% for Yes versus 2099% for No—indicate severe mispricing, with the No side offering absurd returns that signal thin liquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. With nearly two years until resolution and a modest 1¢ price decline over seven days, this appears to be a stale market where the Democratic favorite is priced in but lacks sufficient trading activity to validate confidence in the 92% probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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