Will Sam Bregman win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Democratic primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $12.4K open interest, suggesting the 19¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book and 3¢ spread. The astronomical 3,382% implied yield on the "Yes" side indicates severe mispricing or reflects genuine uncertainty about Bregman's viability as a candidate, though the 837% realized volatility and recent 3¢ price decline over seven days suggest highly speculative positioning rather than informed trading. With 46 days until resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this market appears to be pricing in either very low baseline support for Bregman or significant information gaps about the Democratic primary field.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of New Mexico, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 New Mexico Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New Mexico Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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