Will Partido Social Democrático (PSD) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?

The PSD is priced at a significant discount (17¢) despite holding substantial open interest of $600.5K, suggesting either strong skepticism about their Senate prospects or that this represents a contrarian positioning. The extreme implied yield of 1,044% on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume and a wide 12¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the realized volatility of 1,328% suggesting this market experiences sharp, infrequent moves rather than continuous price discovery. With 171 days until the October 2026 election and a recent 54% price appreciation (11¢ to 17¢ over seven days), the market appears to be reacting to new information about Brazilian political dynamics, though the high cliff risk index and low information arrival rate (1.9/h) warrant caution about relying on this price as a reliable forecast.

Resolution rules

The next federal Senate election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, in which two-thirds of the Senate’s 81 seats will be contested. This market will resolve according to the political party that holds the greatest number of seats in the next Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election. All seats, not only the ones contested in the next Brazilian Senate election, will be considered. In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party in the Brazilian Senate as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election, not by any federation or coalition it may be a part of. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes) or the Brazilian Senate (https://www25.senado.leg.br/web/senadores/em-exercicio/-/e/por-partido).

Indicators

Regime

Trade