Will Melissa Bailey be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will Melissa Bailey be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 3970.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 16.2% on the No side, reflecting Bailey's 6% probability pricing despite $13.7M in open interest.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 3970.7% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 16.2% on the No side, reflecting Bailey's 6% probability pricing despite $13.7M in open interest. The zero 24-hour volume and tight 1¢ spread suggest this is a stale, illiquid position where the last trade may not reflect current nomination dynamics. With 144 days to the September 8, 2026 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, this contract faces moderate event concentration risk, making the extreme Yes-side yield potentially misleading given the thin trading activity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6d505d271ceae36131590b7e96fca04612bb113c7726c68c26406ebdc3e71440 yes 100