Will the Democratic Party win the NH-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 87¢ reflects strong confidence in retaining NH-02, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (27.1% vs. 1215.4%) signal severe liquidity imbalance—the No side is vastly underfunded relative to risk. The market has rallied sharply from 72¢ over seven days on modest $24 daily volume, suggesting the price movement may be driven by thin liquidity rather than fundamental conviction, and the 149% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicates meaningful tail risk despite the high probability pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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