Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-04 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing an extremely unlikely outcome at 8¢, implying only an 8% win probability in a district that has historically favored Republicans, yet the astronomical 2103.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns. With zero 24-hour volume despite $30,235 in open interest and a 2¢ spread, this market appears to be a liquidity trap where the extreme yield reflects the difficulty of actually executing trades rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity. The 200-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for fundamental shifts, but the neutral regime score and modest 12 cliff risk index suggest current pricing is relatively stable despite the eye-catching yield figures.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade