Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-06 House seat?

This market shows extreme imbalance with the No position trading at a massive 1839.3% implied yield versus just 18.0% for Yes, reflecting the heavily skewed 91¢ price that prices in near-certainty of Democratic victory in this district. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $25,328 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests illiquidity despite the large OI, indicating most positions are stale or locked in. With 201 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this market carries significant tail risk—the extreme yield asymmetry suggests either strong conviction in Democratic dominance or potential mispricing of tail scenarios in what should be a competitive 2026 cycle.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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