Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-07 House seat?

The Democratic lean at 65¢ reflects a modest advantage in NJ-07, but the market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $12.4K open interest, making price discovery unreliable. The extreme realized volatility of 534% and asymmetric implied yields (386% on the No side versus 85.5% on Yes) suggest this contract is mispriced or thinly traded, with the No position offering outsized compensation for tail risk. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market likely lacks sufficient information flow (3.0/hour) to support confident positioning until closer to the 2026 election cycle.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade