Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-08 House seat?

The market is pricing in overwhelming Democratic dominance of NJ-08 at 93¢, reflecting the district's strong blue lean, though the extreme 2416.8% implied yield on the No side signals severe illiquidity and mispricing on the Republican outcome. With zero 24-hour volume despite $28.6M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a stale or inactive market where the price may not reflect current betting sentiment. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 midterms provides ample time for political shifts, but the high cliff risk index (13) suggests potential for sharp repricing if unexpected developments occur in the district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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