Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-10 House seat?

The market is pricing in an overwhelming 93% probability for a Democratic win in NJ-10, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean, though the extreme 2416.8% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe illiquidity on the opposing side with only $23,707 in open interest. Zero 24-hour volume combined with a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a relatively dormant market, making the high cliff risk index of 13 noteworthy—any unexpected political developments could trigger sharp repricing given the thin liquidity. With 201 days until the November 2026 resolution, there's substantial time for conditions to shift, though the neutral regime score indicates current market stability around the consensus view.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade