Will the Republican Party win the NY-08 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $42,774 in open interest, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing. The 2,416.8% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the low absolute price rather than genuine conviction, while the 13-point cliff risk index indicates significant tail risk around resolution. NY-08 is a heavily Democratic district (Cook PVI D+13), making a 7% Republican win probability appear substantially overpriced relative to historical performance, though the neutral regime score and 201 days to expiry provide time for conditions to shift.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade