Will the Republican Party win the NY-11 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing NY-11 at a dominant 84¢ with minimal liquidity ($10k open interest and zero 24-hour volume), suggesting this may reflect stale pricing rather than active market conviction. The extreme 955% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity risk, as such yields are typically unsustainable in efficient markets. With 201 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, this market appears to be a low-activity niche contract where the Republican lean may not withstand new information or increased trading activity closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade