Will the Democratic Party win the NY-13 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in NY-13, with the Yes side priced at 94¢ implying near-certainty of a Democratic hold, yet the No side shows an extraordinary 2,849.9% implied yield that signals severe illiquidity and pricing dysfunction. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with only $38,432 in open interest suggests this is a thinly-traded market where the extreme No-side yield is largely theoretical rather than actionable, and the 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates potential for sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade