Will the Democratic Party win the NY-16 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided 94% probability for Democratic victory in NY-16, yet the implied yield on a "No" outcome reaches an extraordinary 2,849.9%, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity on the Republican side despite $30M in open interest. With only $1,660 in 24-hour volume and 201 days to expiration, the thin liquidity and tight 1¢ spread mask a Cliff Risk Index of 16, indicating potential for sharp repricing as the November 2026 election approaches and more information emerges about candidate quality or district demographics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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