Will the Democratic Party win the NY-19 House seat?

This NY-19 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $7.8M open interest, suggesting the $0.08 spread may not reflect true execution costs. The asymmetric implied yields (63.8% for Yes vs. 517% for No) and exceptionally high realized volatility of 1092% indicate significant pricing uncertainty, though the neutral regime and modest 1¢ price movement over seven days suggest recent stability. With 201 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this market appears to be pricing in substantial tail risk for the Republican outcome, but the lack of recent trading activity raises questions about whether the 74¢ Democratic price reflects genuine market consensus or stale quotes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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