Will the Democratic Party win the NY-22 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 84¢ reflects strong confidence in holding NY-22, yet the market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $8.1M open interest, suggesting the position is largely locked in. The No side offers an extraordinary 887% implied yield versus just 37.2% for Yes, indicating severe mispricing or that contrarian bettors are demanding massive compensation for tail risk in a district Democrats are heavily favored to retain. With 201 days to expiry and realized volatility at 357%, the 5¢ spread masks thin actual trading depth—this appears to be a "set and forget" market where the consensus price may not reflect genuine two-sided liquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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