Will the Democratic Party win the NY-26 House seat?

The market is pricing Democrats as heavy favorites at 91¢ with a tight 2¢ spread, but the extreme 1839% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing—the $23.7K open interest with zero 24-hour volume suggests this contract lacks meaningful price discovery. The 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election provides ample time for political shifts, yet the stagnant price and high cliff risk index (10) indicate the market may be overconfident in the Democratic lean without sufficient trading activity to validate the 91% probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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