Will the Democratic Party win the OH-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2091.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.8% on the No side, reflecting the 8¢ price that prices Democrats at only 8% to win Ohio's 4th district—a historically Republican seat. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $28,247 open interest and a 2¢ spread suggests illiquidity that could make entry or exit difficult, and the elevated 12 Cliff Risk Index indicates potential for sharp repricing as the November 2026 election approaches. With over 200 days until expiration and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a long-dated contrarian bet on Democratic performance in a safe Republican district, though the lack of recent trading activity warrants caution about execution risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade