Will the Democratic Party win the OH-05 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 9¢ reflects an extremely bearish outlook for OH-05, pricing in only a 9% win probability despite 200 days until resolution. The 1,849% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and suggests severe mispricing or reflects genuine Republican dominance in this district, though the modest $550 in 24-hour volume raises liquidity concerns for position sizing. The recent 10¢ to 9¢ price decline over seven days indicates strengthening Republican sentiment, and with a 10 Cliff Risk Index, this market warrants caution around late-stage volatility as we approach the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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