Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Josh Williams be the Republican nominee for OH-09?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing May 5, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a modest 13¢ price, with zero 24-hour volume and only $2.7M open interest across an 18-day window to the May 5 primary.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite a modest 13¢ price, with zero 24-hour volume and only $2.7M open interest across an 18-day window to the May 5 primary. The astronomical 13,630% implied yield on the "Yes" side and 5,562% realized volatility suggest this is a thin, speculative position rather than a liquid prediction—the 5¢ spread and high cliff risk index (7) indicate sharp repricing could occur on minimal information flow. The price has declined 2¢ over seven days, and with 3.1 information arrivals per hour, late-breaking primary developments could dramatically shift odds in the final stretch.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0xfb0453c8a45a74240fb53aa98969613fdeb93e4d3235849079d3517266a5d5c6 yes 100