Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat?

The Republican contract at 18¢ reflects a heavily Democratic-favored race in OH-13, but the market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $7,620 open interest, making the 827% implied yield on the Yes side potentially unreliable. The 5¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract price, and the extraordinary 1,631% realized volatility with a 4.98 vol ratio suggests price discovery is poor—this could represent either genuine uncertainty or thin-market noise rather than informed conviction. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this 18¢ quote given the lack of recent trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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