Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat?

The market is pricing in overwhelming Republican dominance of OH-14 at 88%, but the extreme 1333.9% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing—the $0 in 24-hour volume and tight $21k open interest suggest this contract lacks meaningful price discovery. The 7 Cliff Risk Index and massive yield asymmetry indicate that any shift in fundamentals could trigger sharp repricing, making this more of a liquidity desert than a reliable probability estimate despite the seemingly confident headline price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade