Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Polymarket.

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59¢
Bid/Ask 58/60¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $50.412·OI $45,451.241·195d remaining
0x968a1a79e001d49fa3ee1429e3b95eb01797587740f86d4e6becf3ab1b275bfb
7-day price30 snapshots · 24 regime
61¢59¢ current
Apr 856¢Apr 20

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 130.0%
IY (No) 269.1%
Adj IY 135%
CRI 1
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)130.0%
IY (No)269.1%
Adj IY135%
CRI1

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.341
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:25:14 PM
Observability lowEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x968a1a79e001d49fa3ee1429e3b95eb01797587740f86d4e6becf3ab1b275bfb yes 100

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