Will the Republican Party win the OK-03 House seat?

The market is pricing an overwhelming 93% probability for Republican victory in Oklahoma's 3rd congressional district, though the extreme 2416.7% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the contrarian bet—evidenced by zero 24-hour volume despite $34.9M in open interest. With over 200 days until the November 2026 election and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a low-liquidity market where the Republican lean reflects Oklahoma's strong GOP lean rather than active price discovery, making it vulnerable to significant repricing if competitive dynamics shift.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade