Will the Republican Party win the OR-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $31k open interest, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The 2416.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely unsustainable, indicating either deep mispricing or that this contract functions more as a speculative lottery ticket than a serious probability estimate. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market lacks conviction—the 1¢ spread is tight relative to the price, but the zero volume and massive yield asymmetry suggest traders should be cautious about treating this as a reliable forecast for Oregon's heavily Democratic 1st district.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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