Will the Republican Party win the OR-05 House seat?

The Republican contract on OR-05 has collapsed from 20¢ to 16¢ over seven days, suggesting significant deterioration in GOP prospects for this traditionally Democratic district. The extreme 954% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume and $8.7k open interest indicates this is a thin, illiquid market where the low price may reflect limited trading activity rather than confident Democratic consensus. With 201 days to expiration and a 1561% realized volatility, this market remains highly unstable and vulnerable to sharp repricing as the 2026 cycle develops.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade