Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?
Prediction markets currently give a 42% probability that Will Jo Rae Perkins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Oregon?. This contract trades at 42¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Jo Rae Perkins' probability has collapsed 59% to 41% over the past week, suggesting significant deterioration in her nomination prospects or entry of stronger primary competitors.
Analysis
Jo Rae Perkins' probability has collapsed 59% to 41% over the past week, suggesting significant deterioration in her nomination prospects or entry of stronger primary competitors. The 1641% implied yield on "Yes" reflects extreme long-shot pricing with only 32 days to resolution, though the 5¢ spread and $16.5M open interest indicate reasonable liquidity for a niche political market. The 952% realized volatility and 5.2 info arrivals per hour signal this race remains highly dynamic, with the neutral regime score suggesting no clear directional consensus among traders.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Oregon. If no 2026 Oregon Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xbd5f01bc9f7d8214b9200773c72573987f0964f7bc4347fa6f1106ce9d1722c5 yes 100