Will the Democratic Party win the PA-02 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $24,967 in open interest, suggesting the 95¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The No side's 3,456% implied yield is a classic sign of minimal liquidity on the unfavored outcome—a $100 bet against Democrats would theoretically return $3,556, but this is largely theoretical given the vanishingly thin market depth. With 201 days until resolution and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in a heavily favored Democratic hold in PA-02, though the lack of trading activity warrants skepticism about whether this reflects real conviction or simply reflects one-sided order flow.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade