Will the Republican Party win the PA-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Republicans trading at just 6¢ despite PA-03 being a historically competitive district, generating an extraordinary 2,849.7% implied yield on the Yes side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $29,911 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests illiquidity is preventing price discovery, likely leaving this contract significantly undervalued as the market approaches the 2026 election with over 200 days remaining. The 16 Cliff Risk Index indicates substantial tail risk, possibly reflecting uncertainty about candidate selection or redistricting changes that could dramatically shift the district's partisan lean.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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