Will the Democratic Party win the PA-04 House seat?

This market shows extremely lopsided pricing with Democrats priced at 91¢ reflecting a heavily favored outcome in PA-04, while the No side offers a staggering 1,839% implied yield—a classic sign of illiquidity and minimal conviction on the Republican side with only $24,009 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 2¢ spread is tight, but the 920% risk-adjusted implied yield and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 10 suggest this market lacks sufficient depth to reliably price tail outcomes, making it vulnerable to sharp repricing if new political developments emerge before the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade