Will the Republican Party win the PA-04 House seat?

This market displays extreme mispricing with Republicans priced at just 8¢ despite PA-04 being a historically competitive or Republican-leaning district, generating an extraordinary 2091.8% implied yield on the Yes side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $35,814 open interest and a wide 2¢ spread suggests severe illiquidity, making the price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation or stale quotes. With 201 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 12, this appears to be either a data anomaly, a market with insufficient price discovery, or a reflection of genuine uncertainty about the district's 2026 dynamics that hasn't been arbitraged away.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade