Will the Republican Party win the PA-06 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2424.5% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting Republicans are dramatically undervalued at just 7¢ despite PA-06 being a competitive district that Republicans have won recently. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $17,403 open interest and a wide 2¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and difficult to execute at scale. The sharp price decline from 8¢ to 7¢ over seven days, paired with the high cliff risk index of 13 and 200 days to expiration, suggests this market may be suffering from stale pricing or reflect an information gap rather than true market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade