Will the Democratic Party win the PA-13 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing PA-13 at just 6¢ with an extreme 2,849.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or that this is a deeply Republican-leaning district where Democratic victory is considered nearly impossible. The market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $23.5M open interest and a wide 2¢ spread, indicating illiquidity and potential difficulty executing trades at posted prices. With 201 days to expiry and the price declining from 7¢ to 6¢ over the past week, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme yield may reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine market consensus on Democratic chances.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade