Will the Republican Party win the PA-13 House seat?

The market is pricing in overwhelming Republican dominance of PA-13 with a 93¢ price, but the zero 24-hour volume and extreme 2416.7% implied yield on the No side suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine market confidence. The 1¢ spread is deceptively tight given the $25.3M open interest concentration, and the 13 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant tail risk around the November 2026 election, making this more of a speculative position than a liquid prediction market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade