Will the Republican Party win the PA-15 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (92%) for Republican victory in PA-15, yet shows zero 24-hour volume despite $27.6K open interest, suggesting the price may be stale or reflect limited recent trading activity. The asymmetric implied yields—15.8% for Yes versus 2091.8% for No—indicate severe mispricing or illiquidity, with the No side offering an unrealistic return that signals few traders are willing to bet against the Republican outcome. With 201 days to expiration and a modest 2¢ spread, this market appears to be a low-liquidity position trade rather than an actively discovered price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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