Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026?

This market is pricing in an extremely high Democratic win probability at 91¢, yet shows zero 24-hour volume despite $21.7K in open interest, suggesting the price may be stale or reflect illiquidity rather than active conviction. The massive 1,846% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of extreme mispricing—such asymmetric yields typically indicate thin liquidity where small positions on the underpriced side create outsized theoretical returns. With the 2026 race still nearly two years away and a neutral regime score, this pricing appears to overweight Democratic incumbency advantage without accounting for typical midterm headwinds or the substantial uncertainty inherent in a race this far out.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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