Will London have between 40-50mm of precipitation in April?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 16% probability on a 40-50mm precipitation band that historically occurs roughly 20-25% of the time in London Aprils, yet the astronomical 12,956% implied yield on YES reflects severe illiquidity ($2.7k open interest, $309 daily volume) rather than genuine edge. The 77% price surge over 7 days combined with a 2,371% realized volatility and 5-point cliff risk index suggests recent resolution uncertainty or data arrival, making this a liquidity trap rather than a tradeable opportunity despite the apparent mispricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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