Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2026 AFC South?

The Jaguars' AFC South odds have collapsed 34% over the past week to just 23¢, suggesting deteriorating confidence in Jacksonville's competitive outlook, though the extreme 295% implied yield on the Yes side indicates significant underpricing relative to the massive downside risk. With zero 24-hour volume despite $90K open interest and a 30¢ spread, this market suffers from severe illiquidity that likely explains both the outsized yield and the astronomical 1321% realized volatility—making the current price potentially unreliable. The 263-day timeframe provides ample room for roster changes and injury developments to shift expectations, but the neutral regime and 4.7 info arrivals per hour suggest the market is currently digesting information at a measured pace rather than pricing in imminent catalysts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC South division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Regime

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