Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 2,111% and a vol ratio of 8.44, suggesting price discovery is highly unstable despite the straightforward binary outcome. The 47¢ price has surged 31 percentage points over seven days (from 36¢), indicating a significant shift in market sentiment toward expecting no RBA rate change, though the wide 13¢ spread and modest $37.17 daily volume suggest thin liquidity that may be amplifying moves. With 61 days to the June 2026 meeting and an information arrival rate of 5.2 events per hour, this market appears to be reacting to incoming economic data, though the extraordinarily high implied yields (651% for "yes") reflect the illiquidity premium rather than genuine rate expectations.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.

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