Will the Republicans win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?

This market is pricing Republicans at an extreme 4% probability of winning Rhode Island's 2026 gubernatorial race, reflecting the state's deep Democratic lean, yet it shows zero 24-hour volume despite $25.7M in open interest and a concerning 3¢ spread. The astronomical 4,380% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 1,849% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 24 suggests this is a highly illiquid, speculative position where the extreme pricing may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather thin order books and potential mispricing. With nearly two years until resolution and the market showing no recent price movement, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this quote as a true probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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