Will Ashley Kalus win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $9,425 in open interest, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The astronomical 3,970.7% implied yield on the "Yes" side indicates severe mispricing or that traders view Kalus as a highly unlikely primary winner, with the 50-point spread reflecting minimal trading activity. With 144 days until resolution and a neutral regime score, the market lacks conviction, though the recent 50% price increase (4¢ to 6¢) warrants monitoring for any campaign developments that could shift Rhode Island Republican primary dynamics.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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