Will the Democratic Party win the RI-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme conviction in Democratic retention of Rhode Island's safely blue 1st district, with the Yes position priced at 92¢ reflecting a 15.8% annualized yield, though the asymmetric 2091.8% implied yield on the No side signals minimal market confidence in a Republican upset. The concerning zero 24-hour volume combined with $27.7K open interest and a modest 1¢ spread suggests thin liquidity despite the long 201-day timeframe, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 warrants caution, as the market's extreme skew toward Democratic victory leaves little room for repricing if political conditions shift unexpectedly before the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade